Predictions : 2010 Sri Lanka presidential election


2010 Sri Lankan presidential election will be won by a man with a moustache. Beyond that the election and its consequences will be in the timeless grammar of human politics illustrated in the allegorical video in a previous post.

After this election, the winner will claim ownership of victory in a war rapidly fading into the fog of memory. Regional political players who won him key areas will be paid off. Typically with a picking of juicy, kickback earning ministries as our feudal system demands.

Those backing the loosing side will hounded for their sins, stripped of their trappings and flung without security details into the jaws of their enemies. In keeping with tradition there will be a few killings but lets not have morbid thoughts about post elections death tolls. Part of the deal making will involve a few crossing sides. No doubt whispered details of these deals will make for many kilometres of clever post election newspaper columns and blog posts.

The winner would be elected by people far removed from the eloquent analysis of bloggers and newspaper pundits. The winning votes will be cast by people who have paid for 30 years of history with suffering. Many would have seen families, neighbours, friends pay with lives and limbs. The critical votes will be cast in places reached by bumpy rides off from the main roads – amidst lush green or war scared landscapes. Their choice will be made on a gut feeling after being pummelled by the cheap slogans of retail politics. No doubt a local politico’s promise of a job in far away Colombo or the middle east will be in the back of the mind.

Afterwards they can expect the usual crumbs from the victor’s table. Perhaps a peon-ship at the ministry of up-country mango cultivation. There will still be the local political aristocrat to go through to get anything done. Tough luck if you pasted election posters for the loser.

At least there isn’t a war on. No more young people going off to die or get maimed. No need to build another martyrs graveyard or a concrete bus shelter with a fading picture. No more grand excuses for politicos about why nothing can be done on until the war is over. The victor and his courtiers will have nothing better to do than to fuck with the economy. All in the name of prosperity of course. A frightening prospect if you got anything to loose.

Despite the cynical sneering tone of this post I am not a cynic. I am quite sceptical about cynicism in general and do not have any faith in it.

I certainly do not blame the politicians for the fundamental basis of Sri Lankan politics. They are merely traders in the commodity of political power. We are the livestock that makes the market place called politics possible. It is the primordially feudal nature of political power in any hierarchal social structure. Whether it is a tribe or an empire the fundamentals are the same. The details of its manifestation is like the weather. Repeating general themes with variations in the details.

These fundamentals were ingrained in us long before our ancestors crawled out of caves to do things like write the Ramayana and Gilgamesh. If you find this disagreeable too bad. Naturally there are no easy answers unless we evolve empathy at a biological level. But that is such a tedious rant.

I could of course be wrong (I am a blogger after all).

7 comments

  1. lot of truth and some exaggeration.

    and yes a bit tedious in that you make vague moral judgments. (assumption of moral superiority and vagueness don’t go well together)


    exaggeration can bury the truth.

    while politics, politicians, and elections, do matter, they are small part of life for most ppl.

    that is good and that will continue.

    as such no one will be able to ‘fuck’ the economy ( while corruption continues) . nothing ‘frightening’ will happen. if war did not end in economic collapse peace wont lead there either ( sl will grow gdp wise as always, we will continue to have a higher conditions of life ( less decease , higher literacy, etc) than most ppl in world ) .

    in fact i would be ‘frightened’ if politics meant more than they do at present, or if someone ( incorruptible !) really thought they know how to govern and make us all prosperous and happy etc. ( one reason i cannot stand marxists ) . thankfully
    nothing of the kind is likely to happen.

    so ppl will continue succeed or fail as their own effort ( and some luck ) will allow. iow they will live .

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    • Quite true.

      ppl will continue succeed or fail as their own effort ( and some luck ) will allow. iow they will live
      I think that’s the most optimistic thing I’ve heard anyone say in this dust cloud of political speculation🙂

      I just hope that politicians will leave us alone to get on with life without throwing mad cap restrictions on this and that.

      We lived through the LTTE, the JVP and managed to make it. Peace can’t be harder🙂

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  2. good post cerno. I seem to see a common theme here – that we are the victims of fostering our own feudal system – political patronage being the dark overlord and I could not agree with you more. even at family level I see this and it seems compounded in corporate and body politics – a manifestation of our subservient character. i used to call this the political-poverty trap – but how do we break out of it? and how did big brother next door do it?

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  3. Chavie:😆 thought no one will notice if I sneaked that in. Rumour has it that the deputy non cabinet minister for Rural Up Country Mango Cultivation Ministry is going to be kicked out and the ministry amalgamated into a single Mango Cultivation Ministry.

    m: Thank you😀 I doubt the political-poverty trap can be broken while people are dependent on the government (essentially politicians) for jobs, education and opportunity. I’m sceptical that our overlords will ever allow people to prosper without being dependent on them. Political feudalism isn’t something that can be undermined. But I’m optimistic in thinking that Sri Lankans will make it matter less through their own hard work. It won’t be because of a visionary leader but rising tide of ingenuity, determination and toil. I think the process will be gradual, messy and generational.

    As for big brother next door, I think the pols see that they can make more money off a growing economy. But at the local level (specially in rural areas) they are as feudal as ever.

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